--- title: Weekly Maritime Security Threat Advisory – 19 May 2025 description: "Latest Maritime Security Threats: Gulf of Finland standoff and Red Sea GPS jamming highlight rising risks for global shipping. Stay informed with Dryad Global's expert insights." --- [Maritime Risk Intelligence Blog ](https://channel16.dryadglobal.com/archive) # [Weekly Maritime Security Threat Advisory – 19 May 2025](https://channel16.dryadglobal.com/archive/weekly-maritime-security-threat-advisory-19-may-2025) Written by [Dryad Global](https://channel16.dryadglobal.com/archive/author/dryad-global) | May 20, 2025 at 10:08 PM Dryad Global’s latest **Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA)** highlights two critical incidents that underline the growing complexity of today’s maritime risk landscape: a high-stakes standoff in the **Gulf of Finland** involving a suspected shadow fleet tanker, and a significant **GPS jamming incident in the Red Sea** that resulted in the grounding of a major container vessel. These events serve as stark reminders of the evolving threats posed by geopolitical friction and electronic warfare in strategic shipping lanes.   ## **Gulf of Finland: Shadow Fleet Tensions Escalate NATO-Russia Risk**   On **13 May 2025**, a tense maritime confrontation unfolded in the **Gulf of Finland**, when the Estonian Navy intercepted the **Russia-bound tanker JAGUAR**, flagged to Gabon and recently sanctioned by the UK. Suspected of operating as part of **Russia’s shadow fleet**—a network of vessels used to bypass Western sanctions—the JAGUAR refused a lawful request to alter course for inspection.   ### **Key Developments:**   - Estonia deployed a naval patrol boat, helicopter, and reconnaissance aircraft. - Russia escalated by sending a **Su-35 fighter jet**, which briefly violated NATO airspace. - NATO aircraft, including Polish **MiG-29s**, were scrambled in response. - The standoff ended without boarding, but Estonia labelled the incident a **serious threat to NATO**.   > **Impact:** Expect **increased naval patrols** and **more aggressive enforcement** of maritime sanctions in the Baltic. Commercial shipping in the Gulf of Finland may face delays, route diversions, and higher insurance premiums.   ## **Red Sea: GPS Jamming Grounds MSC ANTONIA**   Just days earlier, on **10 May 2025**, the **Liberian-flagged containership MSC ANTONIA** ran aground near **Eliza Shoals, close to Jeddah Port**, Saudi Arabia. The cause? Confirmed **GPS spoofing** by hostile actors, which manipulated navigation data and misled the crew.   ### **Incident Overview:**   - The 304m vessel was en route from Sudan to Jeddah. - **Pole Star Global** verified GPS interference from falsified GNSS signals. - The vessel remains aground as of 19 May, with **environmental and operational risks** escalating.   This incident followed UKMTO alerts on **9 May** about **widespread GNSS disruption** across the Red Sea, aligning with Q1 reports showing spoofed location “jumps” of up to **6,300 km**, particularly off Sudan.   > **Threat Outlook:** Dryad Global assesses an **80–90% likelihood** of continued GPS jamming/spoofing incidents in the **Red Sea and Gulf of Aden** over the coming months. These tactics are increasingly used by both **state and non-state actors** engaged in regional conflicts.   ## **Strategic Implications for Global Shipping**   These incidents reflect growing **maritime militarisation** and the **normalisation of hybrid threats**. Both situations—one overtly geopolitical, the other technologically disruptive—signal heightened operational risks: - **Baltic Sea:** Expect tighter scrutiny of tankers, longer dwell times, and rerouting near Russian and NATO jurisdictions. - **Red Sea/Gulf of Aden:** Prepare for **navigation disruptions** and introduce **redundant systems** (e.g., inertial navigation, radar fixes) to mitigate GPS spoofing threats. Dryad Global strongly recommends all commercial operators: - Monitor MSTA updates regularly. - Review risk mitigation measures, particularly for **GNSS interference**. - Reassess routing decisions in regions with escalating naval activity or cyber-electronic interference.   ## **Regional Threat Metrics**   Dryad’s incident data also notes a concerning uptick in maritime events across **West Africa**, **Southeast Asia**, and the **Indian Ocean**. While the overall number of hijackings has declined, incidents of **armed robbery, attempted boarding, and spoofing** remain persistent.   ## **Maritime Security Intelligence That Moves With You** From **shadow fleets to signal spoofing**, the latest threats require more than conventional risk assessments. Dryad Global continues to deliver **real-time intelligence**, **cyber threat monitoring**, and **domain awareness tools** that keep your vessels, cargo, and crew one step ahead. **Stay updated:** [View full post](https://channel16.dryadglobal.com/archive/weekly-maritime-security-threat-advisory-19-may-2025) ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Dryad Global" }, "dateModified" : "2026-06-18T17:07:02.009Z", "datePublished" : "2025-05-20T22:08:51Z", "headline" : "Weekly Maritime Security Threat Advisory – 19 May 2025", "image" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "height" : 1935, "url" : "https://4795492.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4795492/REPLACE%20Dryad%20Global%20MSTA%20HERE%20Weekly-1.jpg", "width" : 2834 }, "mainEntityOfPage" : "https://channel16.dryadglobal.com/archive/weekly-maritime-security-threat-advisory-19-may-2025", "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "height" : 60.0, "url" : "https://4795492.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4795492/DG%20Logo%20Featured%20Image%20Green.png", "width" : 120.0 }, "name" : "Ch16 Maritime Risk Intelligence" } } ```