This week’s Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) from Dryad Global paints a volatile picture of regional instability in key maritime corridors, with the Strait of Hormuz emerging as a critical flashpoint. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving heightened threats to commercial shipping and forcing operators to reassess routes, onboard protocols, and security measures.
Iran’s approval of a parliamentary proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling over 26% of global oil trade—has amplified uncertainty in one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. Although a full closure remains unlikely due to the economic implications for Iran and its key trade partners (notably China), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is actively escalating asymmetric pressure through harassment tactics.
Key developments include:
Deployment of advanced IRGCN vessels, including drone carriers, corvettes, and fast-attack craft
Illegal boardings, drone surveillance, and swarm tactics targeting commercial shipping
Severe GPS/AIS jamming affecting nearly 1,000 ships around Bandar Abbas and Abu Musa Island
Spoofed communications impersonating coalition naval forces, increasing navigational confusion and seizure risks
The presence of US and UK carrier strike groups in the region, coupled with base lockdowns in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, underscores the growing sense of urgency.
Dryad Global assesses that the risk to vessels affiliated with Israel, the US, UK, or France is SEVERE, with the broader commercial threat rated SIGNIFICANT. Vessels are advised to:
Avoid Iranian territorial waters near Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb
Route closer to Omani waters where possible
Implement anti-jamming and inertial navigation solutions
Conduct regular anti-boarding drills and consider onboard security enhancements
Maintain continuous comms with UKMTO and CTF-150, and report all GPS anomalies, spoofed signals, or suspicious drone activity
Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Dryad Global notes sustained maritime security risks in:
Gulf of Guinea – Ongoing armed approaches and attempted boardings
South East Asia – Robbery incidents and vessel boardings persist
Indian Ocean – Steady threat profile, with regional trends tied to geopolitical developments
Incident data shows mixed year-on-year trends, with some regions like West Africa showing reduced overall incidents, while the Middle East spikes due to conflict escalation.
Dryad Global continues to monitor all maritime theatres and update clients with real-time threat assessments and operational guidance. Subscribe to receive the weekly MSTA or explore our full suite of maritime intelligence solutions to safeguard your global operations.