Maritime Risk Intelligence Blog

Critical Disruption Threat in the Strait of Hormuz Highlights Rising Regional Risk

Written by Dryad Global | June 24, 2025 at 7:42 PM

This week’s Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) from Dryad Global paints a volatile picture of regional instability in key maritime corridors, with the Strait of Hormuz emerging as a critical flashpoint. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving heightened threats to commercial shipping and forcing operators to reassess routes, onboard protocols, and security measures.

Strait of Hormuz: On the Brink

Iran’s approval of a parliamentary proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling over 26% of global oil trade—has amplified uncertainty in one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes. Although a full closure remains unlikely due to the economic implications for Iran and its key trade partners (notably China), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is actively escalating asymmetric pressure through harassment tactics.

Key developments include:

  • Deployment of advanced IRGCN vessels, including drone carriers, corvettes, and fast-attack craft

  • Illegal boardings, drone surveillance, and swarm tactics targeting commercial shipping

  • Severe GPS/AIS jamming affecting nearly 1,000 ships around Bandar Abbas and Abu Musa Island

  • Spoofed communications impersonating coalition naval forces, increasing navigational confusion and seizure risks

The presence of US and UK carrier strike groups in the region, coupled with base lockdowns in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, underscores the growing sense of urgency.

 

Operational Implications for Shipping

 

Dryad Global assesses that the risk to vessels affiliated with Israel, the US, UK, or France is SEVERE, with the broader commercial threat rated SIGNIFICANT. Vessels are advised to:

  • Avoid Iranian territorial waters near Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb

  • Route closer to Omani waters where possible

  • Implement anti-jamming and inertial navigation solutions

  • Conduct regular anti-boarding drills and consider onboard security enhancements

  • Maintain continuous comms with UKMTO and CTF-150, and report all GPS anomalies, spoofed signals, or suspicious drone activity

 

Global Risk Trends

 

Beyond the Strait of Hormuz, Dryad Global notes sustained maritime security risks in:

  • Gulf of Guinea – Ongoing armed approaches and attempted boardings

  • South East Asia – Robbery incidents and vessel boardings persist

  • Indian Ocean – Steady threat profile, with regional trends tied to geopolitical developments

Incident data shows mixed year-on-year trends, with some regions like West Africa showing reduced overall incidents, while the Middle East spikes due to conflict escalation.

 

In This Week’s Intelligence Briefing:

 

Stay Informed

 

Dryad Global continues to monitor all maritime theatres and update clients with real-time threat assessments and operational guidance. Subscribe to receive the weekly MSTA or explore our full suite of maritime intelligence solutions to safeguard your global operations.