Since November 2023, the Red Sea has faced severe maritime disruptions due to attacks on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthis.
The U.S-led kinetic response has not deterred these attacks, while China’s inaction reflects its strategic interests. Conversely, India has demonstrated responsible maritime statecraft through a calibrated naval response.
Escalating Tensions and Attacks
The conflict intensified in October 2023 with Hamas attacks in Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliation. This crisis extended to the Red Sea, where the Houthis began targeting commercial ships, citing solidarity with the Palestinian cause and demanding an end to Israeli actions in Gaza. The prolonged disruptions have had significant global implications, threatening vital Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) essential for international trade.
Historical Context and Diverse Responses
In the past, piracy off Somalia saw collaborative naval efforts by the U.S., China, and India, restoring security through initiatives like SHADE and the Djibouti Code of Conduct. However, the current crisis has elicited disparate responses from these powers, revealing varied political motivations and strategic interests.
Houthi Objectives and Internal Dynamics
Emerging in the 1990s as a Shia group in Sunni-majority Yemen, the Houthis gained prominence post-Arab Spring, leading to a civil war against Yemen’s government. Despite military successes, they face internal challenges, with a humanitarian crisis and economic sanctions impacting their governance. The Gaza crisis provided the Houthis an opportunity to redirect internal frustrations outward, gaining political leverage both domestically and internationally. Their sophisticated weaponry, including UAVs, USVs, and ballistic missiles, suggests significant external backing, likely from Iran.
U.S.-Led Kinetic Actions
The U.S. established Operation Prosperity Guardian in December 2023, a multinational coalition aimed at securing commercial shipping and deterring Houthi attacks. Despite airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure, the crisis has escalated. The Houthis have retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. warships, highlighting the challenges of sustained naval operations in the region. High operational costs and the strategic limitations of naval firepower against land-based adversaries have hindered the coalition’s effectiveness.
China’s Strategic Inaction
China’s significant economic interests in the Red Sea have not translated into active intervention. Maintaining neutrality, China has focused on safeguarding its maritime trade, achieving a tacit agreement with the Houthis for safe transit of Chinese ships. This stance aligns with China’s broader strategic goals, potentially benefiting from either the restoration of normalcy or the erosion of U.S. influence in the region.
India’s Responsible Stakeholder Role
India’s response, characterized by Operation Sankalp, emphasizes deterrence, swift response to threats, and rescue operations. India’s deployment of naval assets in the region reflects its commitment to maintaining maritime security without engaging in direct kinetic action against the Houthis. This approach aligns with India’s maritime security doctrine and PM Narendra Modi’s SAGAR vision, emphasizing regional stability and good order at sea.
Conclusion
The Red Sea crisis underscores the complexities of addressing maritime threats intertwined with broader geopolitical conflicts. The U.S.-led kinetic actions have not achieved decisive results, while China’s inaction reflects strategic calculations. India’s nuanced response highlights the importance of responsible maritime statecraft in mitigating such crises. Resolving the Red Sea crisis ultimately requires addressing the underlying Yemeni Civil War, with great powers playing a crucial role in fostering a peaceful resolution.