Maritime Security Advisory: Escalation in Middle East

The past two weeks have seen an unprecedented sequence of escalatory events that have the potential to lead to a major flare-up in the Middle East.

On 19 July 2024, Yemeni Houthis launched a missile at Tel Aviv, Israel, leaving eight people injured and one man dead. This was the first time a drone strike from Yemen hit Tel Aviv. Israel responded by carrying out its first airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, targeting the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeidah. Israeli fighter jets struck Houthi military targets near Yemen's port, killing at least nine people and wounding 87.

On 27 July 2024, a rocket attack by Hezbollah on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights killed 12 children and teenagers, leading to an escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. In response, the Israeli military conducted airstrikes against Hezbollah targets inside Lebanese territory and along the border.

On 28 July 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made statements that have been interpreted as threats to invade Israel. On the same day, the Houthis threatened to attack Indian merchant ships unless India stopped supplying Israel.

On 30 July 2024, Israeli fighter jets targeted Fouad Shukur, a Hezbollah senior military officer reportedly involved in the aforementioned strikes on the Golan heights, in southern Beirut. The strikes hit the top floor of an apartment building allegedly killing a woman and two children, and wounding 74 people.

On 31 July 2024, Hamas reported that the leader of its political branch in charge of negotiations from Qatar, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a missile strike on his residence in north Tehran as he attended the swearing-in of newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. This is the second episode of direct Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, following attacks on 19 April 2024.

This sequence of escalatory events will likely lead to retaliatory attacks on Israeli territory and assets in the coming days. It is assessed that these are highly likely to impact commercial shipping through increased Houthi airstrikes on merchant vessels in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian sea, as well as IRGCN seizures of merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Disruptions to vessel communications due to severe GPS jamming off Israel should also be expected.

In line with this heightened risk, Dryad Global advises against all transit of Israeli-linked vessels within the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf until further notice. Perceived affiliation with Israel may include past or partial ownership or management of a vessel, past or expected transit via Israeli ports. Vessels linked with NATO countries are also assessed to be at at a heightened risk when transiting these waters until further notice.