The South China Sea, rich in resources and critical for global trade, has become a key geopolitical flashpoint in 2024.
This is marked by heightened tensions between China, the Philippines, and regional powers. This escalating conflict goes beyond territorial disputes, becoming a pivotal arena for global influence, international law, and the shifting dynamics of 21st-century geopolitics.
China has transitioned from simply asserting its claims to actively confronting its rivals through coercive tactics. The August 2024 ramming of a Philippine vessel near Sabina Shoal exemplifies Beijing's strategy of "gray zone" operations, where it employs maritime militias, coast guards, and civilian vessels to assert control over disputed waters. This approach, which skirts international legal norms, aims to gradually transform contested seas into de facto Chinese territory. The South China Sea is crucial not only for its economic significance but also for China’s broader geopolitical ambitions, as dominance over the region is seen as essential to projecting power across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The 2016 South China Sea arbitral ruling, which invalidated China’s claims, has been dismissed by Beijing as part of its broader vision to reorder the regional hierarchy based on strength rather than international law.
In stark contrast, the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has shifted from passive diplomacy to active resistance. The country has adopted a strategy of direct confrontation, calling out China’s actions at international forums and strengthening military alliances with the United States, Australia, and Japan. Recent military drills and an upgrade of the Philippines' naval assets underscore its commitment to deterrence and international norms. However, Manila faces a difficult balancing act, seeking to counter China’s maritime aggression while maintaining economic ties with its largest trading partner, China. This delicate strategy of leveraging international alliances without provoking conflict could shape the region’s security landscape for years.
For the United States, the South China Sea is not just about regional security but about preserving its global influence in the Indo-Pacific. Washington’s strategy combines military presence, such as Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), and diplomatic efforts, including a $500 million defense aid agreement with the Philippines. Yet, the US is faced with the challenge of balancing credibility as a security guarantor with the need to avoid direct confrontation with China. Washington's focus on a rules-based international order and adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) contrasts sharply with Beijing’s aggressive disregard for international norms, reflecting a broader ideological conflict in the region.
ASEAN, meanwhile, has struggled to form a unified response to the South China Sea tensions. While nations like Vietnam and the Philippines advocate for stronger stances against China, others remain reluctant due to economic dependence on Beijing. The region’s ongoing negotiations over a Code of Conduct (CoC) have stalled, exposing ASEAN’s difficulty in achieving consensus amid external pressures and divergent national interests. This impasse raises questions about ASEAN's ability to play an effective role in regional security.
Ultimately, the South China Sea has become a microcosm of broader global rivalries. For China, it is about asserting dominance and reshaping the regional order. For the Philippines, it is about resisting China’s expansionist agenda while managing complex international relations. For the US, it is about maintaining influence and upholding international norms. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s struggles highlight the limits of multilateral diplomacy in the face of growing great power competition. The region's future depends on innovative diplomacy, strategic restraint, and a renewed commitment to the rule of law—critical to preventing the conflict from spiraling into broader crisis.
Source: Australian Institute of International Affairs