Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA) highlights two critical incidents that underline the growing complexity of today’s maritime risk landscape: a high-stakes standoff in the Gulf of Finland involving a suspected shadow fleet tanker, and a significant GPS jamming incident in the Red Sea that resulted in the grounding of a major container vessel.
These events serve as stark reminders of the evolving threats posed by geopolitical friction and electronic warfare in strategic shipping lanes.
On 13 May 2025, a tense maritime confrontation unfolded in the Gulf of Finland, when the Estonian Navy intercepted the Russia-bound tanker JAGUAR, flagged to Gabon and recently sanctioned by the UK. Suspected of operating as part of Russia’s shadow fleet—a network of vessels used to bypass Western sanctions—the JAGUAR refused a lawful request to alter course for inspection.
Estonia deployed a naval patrol boat, helicopter, and reconnaissance aircraft.
Russia escalated by sending a Su-35 fighter jet, which briefly violated NATO airspace.
NATO aircraft, including Polish MiG-29s, were scrambled in response.
The standoff ended without boarding, but Estonia labelled the incident a serious threat to NATO.
Impact: Expect increased naval patrols and more aggressive enforcement of maritime sanctions in the Baltic. Commercial shipping in the Gulf of Finland may face delays, route diversions, and higher insurance premiums.
Just days earlier, on 10 May 2025, the Liberian-flagged containership MSC ANTONIA ran aground near Eliza Shoals, close to Jeddah Port, Saudi Arabia. The cause? Confirmed GPS spoofing by hostile actors, which manipulated navigation data and misled the crew.
The 304m vessel was en route from Sudan to Jeddah.
Pole Star Global verified GPS interference from falsified GNSS signals.
The vessel remains aground as of 19 May, with environmental and operational risks escalating.
This incident followed UKMTO alerts on 9 May about widespread GNSS disruption across the Red Sea, aligning with Q1 reports showing spoofed location “jumps” of up to 6,300 km, particularly off Sudan.
Threat Outlook: Dryad Global assesses an 80–90% likelihood of continued GPS jamming/spoofing incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden over the coming months. These tactics are increasingly used by both state and non-state actors engaged in regional conflicts.
These incidents reflect growing maritime militarisation and the normalisation of hybrid threats. Both situations—one overtly geopolitical, the other technologically disruptive—signal heightened operational risks:
Baltic Sea: Expect tighter scrutiny of tankers, longer dwell times, and rerouting near Russian and NATO jurisdictions.
Red Sea/Gulf of Aden: Prepare for navigation disruptions and introduce redundant systems (e.g., inertial navigation, radar fixes) to mitigate GPS spoofing threats.
Dryad Global strongly recommends all commercial operators:
Monitor MSTA updates regularly.
Review risk mitigation measures, particularly for GNSS interference.
Reassess routing decisions in regions with escalating naval activity or cyber-electronic interference.
Dryad’s incident data also notes a concerning uptick in maritime events across West Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean. While the overall number of hijackings has declined, incidents of armed robbery, attempted boarding, and spoofing remain persistent.
From shadow fleets to signal spoofing, the latest threats require more than conventional risk assessments. Dryad Global continues to deliver real-time intelligence, cyber threat monitoring, and domain awareness tools that keep your vessels, cargo, and crew one step ahead.
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