Heightened Risk of GPS/AIS Interference in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz - 19 February 2026

Commercial maritime traffic in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz is experiencing elevated risks of GPS jamming and AIS spoofing, directly linked to ongoing Iranian military exercises.

These electronic warfare activities, including signal jamming observed during IRGC Navy drills such as the "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" (initiated around 16 February), have disrupted navigation systems, caused false positional data, and increased hazards of misidentification, near-misses, or collisions in this high-traffic chokepoint.

The interference aligns with historical patterns during IRGC operations and has been amplified by concurrent activities: partial temporary closures of sections of the Strait for live-fire and security drills (reported 17-18 February, causing minor delays), joint Iran-Russia naval exercises now underway in the Gulf of Oman, northern Indian Ocean, and adjacent areas (launched 19 February), and potential multilateral elements. Iranian media and reports highlight electronic warfare components, including drone reconnaissance/attack under jamming conditions and simultaneous land/sea launches.

U.S. MARAD Advisory 2026-001 (issued 9 February) continues to warn of Iranian boarding, detention, and seizure risks in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman, with recommendations for U.S.-flagged vessels to keep AIS transponders active (unless directed otherwise by NAVCENT NCAGS), maintain maximum distance from Iranian waters, favor eastbound transits near Omani waters, and exercise heightened vigilance against hails, approaches, or forced deviations. While the advisory emphasizes physical threats (fast boats, helicopters), allied sources and recent exercise reports underscore electronic disruptions as a complementary, low-cost, deniable tactic that exacerbates operational challenges.

This electronic interference exacerbates ongoing harassment, including IRGC fast-boat shadowing, drone activity, and vessel seizures linked to alleged sanctions evasion. Diplomatic efforts in Geneva have yielded limited progress, with both sides reaching an agreement on a set of guiding principles. However, significant divides remain on key issues, including uranium enrichment limits, ballistic missile capabilities, and verification mechanisms. Iranian officials have indicated they will submit detailed proposals in the coming weeks, with the next round of discussions expected soon. These developments unfold against a backdrop of sharp rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran, as well as ongoing U.S. military reinforcement in the region. The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is currently transiting through the Mediterranean (having recently crossed the Strait of Gibraltar) and is en route to join the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group already operating in the Arabian Sea, accompanied by additional naval assets.

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