In the Middle East, a complex power struggle is underway among three key states: Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, all with varying degrees of hostility towards Israel.
While Sunni countries like Saudi Arabia and NATO member Turkey seek to maintain the status quo under American patronage, Shia Iran pursues an anti-Western agenda, leveraging an "axis of resistance" comprising regional militias like Hezbollah, Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and Yemeni Houthis.
Despite historical Sunni-Shia tensions, recent diplomatic overtures show a shift towards unity against common adversaries. Iran's engagement with Sunni groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad underscores this trend. This comes amid a growing tide of anti-Israel and anti-U.S. sentiment across the Islamic world, fueled by political Islam's ascendancy in once-Westernized societies.
However, the region's stability remains precarious, as exemplified by recent escalations, such as Hamas's attack on Israel. Optimism about regional calm, echoed by U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan, has been challenged by ongoing conflicts and geopolitical complexities. Previous hopes for a transformative security order, driven by American-led diplomatic initiatives like the Abraham Accords, face setbacks due to renewed hostilities.
Moreover, longstanding conflicts, notably the Israeli-Palestinian issue, continue to shape regional dynamics. Terrorism, deeply entrenched in the Palestinian struggle, reflects broader societal radicalization and disenchantment. Hamas's recent aggression underscores its pivotal role, albeit at the expense of broader Palestinian aspirations for peace and statehood.
Looking ahead, conventional solutions seem elusive. Neither a two-state resolution nor a decisive military victory appears feasible. The region braces for continued instability, with terrorism remaining a persistent threat. Amid shifting alliances and entrenched animosities, the Middle East navigates a turbulent geopolitical landscape, with implications reaching far beyond its borders.
Source: GIS Reports