Metis Insights: Taiwan Strait Pelosi Visit and Chinese Military Response

On 02 August 2022, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, the most senior US official to visit Taiwan since Newt Gingrich in 1997.

Taiwan is administered by the Republic of China (ROC) but claimed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), who refer to Taiwan as Chinese Taipei. The US has not recognised the ROC as an independent state since 1979, but Washington and Taipei continue to have strong economic and military ties.
Rumours of the Pelosi visit elicited a strong response from Beijing, who promised an escalation in the PRC’s military presence in the Taiwan Strait.

In response to Pelosi’s visit, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy of the PRC announced six days of live-fire military exercises in the waters surrounding Taiwan. It has designated six zones for the exercises, two of which overlap with the territorial sea and internal waters of the ROC. The PRC maintains that the ROC are separatists and that ROC sovereignty over those waters is not non-existent.

Latest update:

From 1200lt 04th August to 1200lt 07th August 2022, the Chinese military will conduct exercises and training activities including live fire drills in the following maritime areas and air space bounded by lines joining: 

25-15.26N 120-29.20E, 24-50.30N 120-05.45E, 25-04.32N 119-51.22E, 25-28.12N 120-14.30E 

26-07.00N 121-57.00E, 25-30.00N 121-57.00E, 25-30.00N 121-28.00E, 26-07.00N 121-28.00E 

25-34.00N 122-50.00E, 25-03.00N 122-50.00E, 25-03.00N 122-11.00E, 25-34.00N 122-11.00E 

22-56.00N 122-40.00E, 23-38.00N 122-51.00E, 23-38.00N 123-23.00E, 22-56.00N 123-09.00E 

21-14.00N 121-33.00E, 21-33.00N 121-18.00E, 21-07.00N 120-43.00E, 20-48.00N 120-59.00E 

22-43.00N 119-14.00E, 22-10.00N 119-06.00E, 21-33.00N 120-29.00E, 22-09.00N 120-32.00E 

23-40.00N, 122-30.00E, 23-40.00N 122-54′00″E 23°13′00″N 122°54′00″E 23°13'00"N 122°30'00"E 

In our latest Metis Insights, Dryad Global analyst Cameron Watson explores the potential outcomes of this contentious visit to Taiwan.

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