Situation brief | what's happening in South China Sea ?

The Philippines is escalating its military presence in the South China Sea as tensions with China continue to rise over disputed territories. 

In response to growing Chinese aggression, the Philippines has deployed patrol ships, fighter jets, and a new marine battalion focused on littoral operations. This shift is part of the Philippines' military modernization efforts, which aim to transition its forces from internal security to external defense, particularly in the contested areas near Palawan, Sabina Shoal, and Second Thomas Shoal.

Recent incidents, including a major confrontation in June 2024, have intensified the situation. Chinese coast guards seized Filipino troops and equipment during a resupply mission to the Philippine Navy's BRP Sierra Madre, stationed at Second Thomas Shoal. In response, the Philippines dispatched four Navy patrol vessels and a maritime security battalion to Palawan. These deployments have reinforced Manila's presence in the South China Sea, with newly acquired American and Israeli patrol vessels now stationed at the strategic Ulugan Bay base.

Among these vessels are Acero-class gunboats and U.S. Cyclone-class patrol ships, which have been certified for external defense missions. In addition, the newly created littoral combat force, responsible for overseeing operations in coastal areas, has ramped up its patrols in the region. This marks a significant shift for the Philippine Navy and Marine Corps, which are emphasizing their "naval character" after decades of land-focused counterinsurgency operations.

China has criticized these actions, accusing the Philippines of establishing an advanced military base at Sabina Shoal. Chinese state media claimed that the Philippine Coast Guard had anchored vessels near the disputed area, with the intention of occupying it. Tensions further escalated in August 2024, when Chinese and Philippine coast guard ships collided near Sabina Shoal. Both sides blamed each other for the incident, with China accusing the Philippines of deliberately ramming one of its ships, while Manila described Chinese actions as illegal and aggressive.

This collision is the latest in a series of increasingly hostile encounters between Chinese and Philippine forces in the region, raising fears of a potential conflict. Despite a provisional agreement between the two countries to prevent such confrontations, the situation remains volatile. China continues to assert its full sovereignty over the disputed Spratly Islands, which it refers to as the Nansha Islands, and over Sabina Shoal.

In response to a growing number of Chinese provocations, including the interception of a Philippine aircraft by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force, the Philippines is considering deploying FA-50 fighter jets to escort its patrol planes in the South China Sea. Philippine National Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. stated that the struggle for asserting sovereign rights in the region is likely to continue, highlighting the ongoing risk of escalation.

While President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has emphasized that the Philippines does not seek war, he has also made it clear that the country will not be intimidated by China. With increasing military presence and support from allies like the United States, the Philippines is positioning itself to counter Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, though the risk of conflict remains high.