West Africa: where have the pirates gone?

The Gulf of Guinea has been the global epicentre of maritime crime and piracy for some time now. However, throughout 2021 the well-established trend of increasing incidents, often involving the violent armed boarding of vessels and the kidnap and ransom of crews, has declined significantly.  

WEST AFRICA: WHERE HAVE THE PIRATES GONE?
The Gulf of Guinea has been the global epicentre of maritime crime and piracy for some time now. However, throughout 2021 the well-established trend of increasing incidents, often involving the violent armed boarding of vessels and the kidnap and ransom of crews, has declined significantly.

Introduction
Such a precipitous decline in incidents is welcomed; however, increasingly this is being met with claims that the risk to commercial operations throughout the Gulf of Guinea has also lessened.
The importance of risk-based decision-making for all commercial operators within the Gulf of Guinea means that it is vital that sudden and steep changes in trends of incident data are examined in detail.
Indeed, by using a simple logic-based investigation of available maritime security data, it is apparent that the basis for such a decline is likely to be fragile and conditional upon loosely correlated actions, strongly indicating the fragility of any assessment that correlates a reduction in threat with a decline in incidents.

The Current State of Piracy & Maritime Crime within West Africa & Gulf of Guinea
Within 2021, overall incidents of piracy and maritime crime throughout West Africa have declined by 54% compared to 2020. Incidents of actual and attempted attacks and vessels being fired upon have all declined by more than 75%. Overall numbers of vessels boarded throughout the region have fallen by 32%. Incidents of vessels being boarded, and crews kidnapped have declined by 66%.

Trends and Causes
Longitudinal analysis of maritime crime data allows for observations over time and as such offers a useful but inherently limited degree of perspective through which to understand a current situation.
Trend analysis alone offers little context about what factors might be driving the decline in incidents in the Gulf of Guinea and would only present commercial operators with a limited perspective against which to benchmark key risk-based decisions.
It would be easy, but false, to conclude that a reduction in numbers is indicative of a decline in the threat from piracy and maritime crime in West Africa.
In assessing trend data alone across the past 11 months, it would be easy, but false, to conclude that a reduction in numbers is indicative of a decline in the threat from piracy and maritime crime in West Africa. Risk as a metric of measurement, often measured through the binary equation of probability and impact combined, may be said to have reduced in its proliferation and intensity. However, this does not give any indication of the likely integrity of the declining trend, nor its future direction over the longer term.
With threat as the ultimate determinant factor in long-term risk trends, it is here that a qualitative look at events throughout West Africa in 2021 should begin. Doctrinal definitions of threat analysis rest upon the core components of capability, opportunity, and intent. It is only through the disruption of one or all of these components that any sustained reduction in threat is likely to be achieved.

The second such narrative is that piratical intent within the Gulf of Guinea has fundamentally altered, leading to a decline in piracy. When exploring the role of intent as a driver of piracy, it is vital to focus upon other associated drivers of piracy and maritime crime, as well as negative impacts upon intent, such as effective deterrence.
The third examines piratical opportunity. This focuses upon opportunity as a concept that manifests in a number of ways. Opportunity is examined principally as a concept that drives criminality as well as the physical notion of opportunity which occurs in areas where there is a high volume of viable targets and a high degree of freedom of movement.

What Lies Behind the Dip in Incidents in the Gulf of Guinea?
The Acting Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Mohammed Bello Koko, and the management team at the official launch of the Deep Blue Project by the President of Nigeria, Mohammadu Buhari, GCFR, at the Lagos Ports Complex (LPC), Apapa, Lagos, June 2021.
The most significant development in 2021 in countering maritime crime and piracy in the Gulf of Guinea was the launch of Nigeria’s highly anticipated Nigerian ‘Integrated National Security and Waterways Protection Infrastructure program,’ also known as the ‘Deep Blue Project’ (DBP). The first narrative worth exploring is that which equates the launch and subsequent effectiveness of the DBP with sole responsibility for the decline. The central thrust of this narrative is that the DBP has significantly degraded the capability of pirate action groups whilst providing a significant degree of effective deterrence.

Has Piratical Capability Reduced?
The DBP is the first integrated maritime security strategy in West Africa aimed at countering piracy. Launched on June 10, 2021, it will see the phased deployment of 16 armoured vehicles for coastal patrol, two special mission vessels, 17 fast interceptor boats, two special mission aircraft for surveillance of the country’s EEZ, three special mission helicopters for search and rescue operations, and four unmanned aerial vehicles.
Providing a central framework for command-and-control, Nigeria established a regional command centre based in Lagos, which ties in with regional hubs to enhance the coordination and sharing of information.
While the launch of the DBP and the decline in piracy in 2021 are roughly correlated in time, there appears to be little tangible evidence of causation. The data, both in terms of overall volume of incidents and the specific types of incidents, does not indicate a scenario that would fully explain such a decline. If one were to assume that the DBP’s assets were deployed into an environment of frenetic piratical activity, it would be logical to expect a high number of piratical incidents to continue, albeit marked by an increasing number of successful counter-piracy operations involving vessel interdiction and/or arrests. An example of this behavior was seen when the Russian navy destroyer the Vice-Admiral Kulakov responded to and disrupted the boarding of the MSC LUCIA in October 2021.

Have Pirates Changed Their Minds?
In seeking to explain the steep decline in piracy throughout the Gulf of Guinea, it is important to consider the role of intent. Piratical intent is the result of a confluence of factors at several levels. At the local level, piracy is primarily driven by poverty. Additional factors include unemployment, weak governance, corruption, community violence and militancy, established subgroup hostility to the state, and the presence of established organized crime. All of which drive disenfranchised young men from riverine and coastal communities towards serious organized crime and piracy.

Summary
Overall incidents of offshore piracy may have reduced throughout 2021, yet the core components that drive piracy and threaten vessels and crews operating within the region remain unaltered. The integrity of the declining trend can be seen to be conditional upon long-term political investment and focus upon the maritime domain, which in a country of vast complexity and competing priorities and set against the backdrop of a global pandemic and uncertain economic climate, is less than assured.

The fragility of the current downward trend in incidents rests with the endemic root causes that drive acts of piracy and provide the opportunity for such conditions to exist. It would be disingenuous at best, and dangerous at worst to interpret the decline in piracy volumes in 2021 as indicative of any fundamental or lasting change brought about by any one state or initiative. Claims of radically reduced risks within such a short timeframe are premature.
While regional counter-piracy efforts in 2021 are to be commended, they require long-term investment, both politically and financially, with onshore investment arguably of greater importance than offshore assets.

With a reformed, reflexive, and up-to-date ISPS Code, all actors can play their part in ensuring that global maritime shipping is a safer place for all those involved.