Attacks threaten shipping’s destabilisation

A recent report by Elisabeth Braw from the Atlantic Council highlights the escalating threat to global maritime security posed by state-linked aggression, particularly by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. 

Since November 2023, the Houthis have intensified their attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea using drones, missiles, and uncrewed boats. This campaign has transformed one of the world's most crucial trade routes into a high-risk area, forcing shipping companies to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing journey lengths, disrupting global supply chains, and raising transportation costs, all of which ultimately burden consumers.

While the Houthis have refrained from attacking vessels linked to Russia and China, they have severely impacted the neutral global shipping industry. Their actions not only cause economic damage but also challenge the freedom of navigation, a fundamental principle of global trade. The international response has been mixed. A multinational naval force, Operation Prosperity Guardian, has been deployed to protect merchant vessels, but the Houthis’ disregard for retaliation means that military measures alone are insufficient to deter their aggression.

The human cost is also concerning, as seafarers working in these dangerous waters face significant risks. The Philippines, a major source of maritime labor, has restricted its seafarers from working in the region, exacerbating an already severe shortage of crew members for shipping companies. The continued attacks threaten to worsen the recruitment crisis, particularly for maritime labor from India, the Philippines, and Indonesia, which could further drive up shipping costs.

Beyond the Red Sea, other critical shipping lanes such as the Black Sea and the Taiwan Strait are also vulnerable due to geopolitical tensions. The interconnectedness of global trade means that regional conflicts can easily spiral into broader threats to maritime security.

The Houthis’ strategy appears to prioritize gaining global attention and instilling fear among shipping companies, insurers, and their customers, rather than sinking vessels. By targeting commercial shipping, they aim to erode confidence in global maritime trade, destabilizing economies and challenging the rules-based international order. This form of “grey zone” aggression—non-state actors inflicting harm without direct military confrontation—makes it difficult for affected countries to mount an effective response.

To address the growing crisis, Braw advocates for a coordinated international effort that includes military, diplomatic, and industry-based strategies. Enhanced military cooperation is needed to bolster naval defenses, while diplomatic efforts should focus on de-escalating tensions and supporting UN-led peace initiatives. The shipping industry must also build resilience through improved risk management, crew training, and advanced defensive technologies. Furthermore, international law enforcement should strengthen collaboration to disrupt illicit maritime activities, and global information-sharing platforms are crucial for exchanging threat intelligence.

The Houthis’ attacks on commercial vessels signal a broader erosion of the global maritime order, with potentially grave consequences for supply chains, food security, and economic stability. As Braw warns, avoiding risky waters may offer a short-term solution, but without a coordinated international response, state-linked actors like the Houthis will continue to exploit and challenge maritime trade routes with impunity.