Black Sea Under Fire: Rising Risks to Global Shipping and Food Supply Chains – MSTA 27 May 2025

The maritime security landscape saw a dramatic escalation this week with one of the largest coordinated strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure since the onset of the war. On 23 May 2025, Russian forces targeted the critical ports of Odesa and Chernomorsk in an operation that deployed 367 drones and missiles across Ukraine.

While Moscow claims the attacks were aimed at military assets—such as a containership allegedly carrying drones and ammunition—the damage to civilian port infrastructure is undeniable. The strikes have disrupted cargo handling and grain export operations just as Ukraine’s port exports had begun recovering to pre-war levels, supported by a Navy-secured maritime corridor.

This offensive follows two significant Ukrainian provocations:

• A drone strike on Russia’s Boyko Towers oil platform in the Black Sea on 19 May, impacting radar and surveillance capacity.

• An unverified drone attack on President Putin’s helicopter over Kursk Oblast on 20 May, reportedly intercepted by Russian air defense.

These incidents—and the collapse of March’s fragile ceasefire—have created a highly volatile environment. Dryad Global now assesses the likelihood of intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine’s ports and Black Sea shipping at 70–80%, with elevated threats from naval mines, GPS interference, and soaring war risk insurance premiums.

Repairs to the damaged ports are expected to take months to over a year, hindering global grain supply chains at a time of mounting food security concerns.

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🌍 Other Global Maritime Security Developments

🔹 Red Sea: Houthi forces have declared a blockade on Israel’s Port of Haifa, potentially reopening tensions in the region.

🔹 Baltic Sea: Russian naval escorts are increasing pressure in the region’s maritime stand-off with NATO.

🔹 Indian Ocean: An oil spill disaster is unfolding off India’s coast, as responders race to contain environmental damage.

🔹 Southeast Asia: ReCAAP reports three armed robbery incidents between 13–19 May.

🔹 Cybersecurity Alert: The U.S. Coast Guard warns of a rising number of shipboard cyberattack attempts, underscoring the need for robust digital defense strategies.

🔹 Global Intelligence: The UK and allies have exposed a new Russian campaign targeting western logistics and tech sectors.

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