Dryad Global Maritime Security Threat Analysis – 17 March 2025

As maritime security threats continue to evolve, the Dryad Global Maritime Security Threat Analysis (MSTA) for 17 March 2025 provides critical insights into key regions facing heightened risks. From escalating conflict in Yemen to a resurgence of piracy off Somalia’s coast, global shipping operators must navigate an increasingly complex security landscape.

The United States has intensified military operations in Yemen, launching large-scale airstrikes targeting Iran-backed Houthi forces. These strikes, concentrated in Al Sanaa, Hodeidah, and Saada, have crippled Houthi military assets, including radar systems, air defenses, and missile storage sites.

However, these actions have had significant repercussions on maritime security in the Red Sea. Hodeidah’s port has sustained heavy damage, which, if further compromised, could severely disrupt Yemen’s import capacity and impact global supply chains. For shipping operators, the risks remain severe:

• Mandatory war risk insurance of at least 1% per transit due to ongoing Houthi threats.

• Increased GPS interference and collateral damage risks from US airstrikes.

• Low-freeboard, slow-moving vessels remain prime targets, with night-time attacks posing the greatest danger.

Without a ceasefire in Gaza or a decisive military outcome, Red Sea shipping routes will remain high-risk zones, forcing operators to either reroute or bear escalating security and insurance costs.

SOMALIA – Rising Instability and the Return of Piracy?

Instability in Mogadishu continues to escalate as Al-Shabaab gains territorial control, including Balcad, just 35km from the capital. With Somali forces deserting their posts and pro-government militias switching allegiance, security is deteriorating.

The maritime implications of this instability are alarming:

• Over 30 piracy-related incidents have been reported since late 2023, including hijackings of commercial vessels such as MV Ruen and MV Abdullah.

• Hijacked dhows are being used for further pirate operations, mirroring the tactics that fueled piracy from 2008-2012.

• International naval resources are stretched thin, as attention is diverted to Houthi threats in the Red Sea.

For shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Somali Basin, the risks of piracy resurgence are rising. With limited Coast Guard oversight and Al-Shabaab’s growing influence, piracy could soon reach critical levels, significantly impacting global trade and security costs.

WEST AFRICA – Declining Incidents, But Lingering Threats

While piracy incidents have decreased in the Gulf of Guinea, threats remain:

• Nigeria’s offshore sector continues to be highly vulnerable to criminal activity.

• Recent assaults on shrimp vessels in Ecuador’s Gulf of Guayaquil indicate new trends in South American piracy.

• Haitian gangs are expanding maritime routes for arms and drug trafficking, increasing regional instability.

GLOBAL DRUG TRAFFICKING & CRIMINAL ACTIVITY

Criminal networks continue to exploit maritime routes for illicit trade. Recent operations highlight:

• $5.4M drug seizure by HMS Lancaster in the Middle East.

• 300kg of cocaine hidden in wood en route to China seized in Colombia.

• 73 packages of marijuana intercepted at Haina Port, Dominican Republic.

• Two tons of cocaine bound for Russia confiscated in Ecuador.

These seizures underscore the growing complexity of global narcotics trafficking, with ports and shipping routes increasingly being targeted by law enforcement.

With conflicts escalating, piracy threats resurging, and criminal networks exploiting vulnerabilities, the global maritime industry must remain vigilant. Dryad Global’s Maritime Security Threat Analysis (MSTA) provides real-time intelligence to help operators make informed decisions in a rapidly changing environment.