Gulf naval developments: on course to face new challenges?

As maritime insecurity escalates in the Red Sea and the Gulf, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) navies are pursuing tailored investment strategies to bolster their capabilities and safeguard regional maritime interests. 

This strategic pivot comes amid heightened risks from the Houthi campaign against shipping and the looming threat of broader conflict between Israel and Iran, prompting these navies to reassess their modernization efforts.

Historically, GCC states have underinvested in naval capabilities compared to their air and land forces. However, recent naval investments in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) indicate a shift in focus. Qatar is leading the charge with a significant naval upgrade, including the procurement of a small submarine fleet and a modern landing helicopter dock (LHD), as well as various frigates and corvettes through partnerships with Italian and Spanish manufacturers. This strategic enhancement aims to provide Qatar with a more robust deterrent and operational flexibility.

Saudi Arabia's naval modernization also reflects a need to enhance its maritime security posture. The kingdom has begun to recapitalize its fleet, ordering five frigates from Spain while working on more complex Multi-Mission Surface Combatants, a step that underscores its intention to modernize effectively. The UAE's navy, on the other hand, is expanding its inventory with missile-armed corvettes and offshore patrol vessels, alongside a continued commitment to enhancing its expeditionary capabilities.

Despite these advancements, the growing threat from Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea has put the efficacy of these investments into question. The Houthis' use of uncrewed vessels and missiles has posed challenges that GCC navies may not yet be fully equipped to counter. The ongoing conflict has highlighted the need for improved maritime domain awareness and defensive capabilities, prompting regional naval planners to reevaluate their strategic objectives in light of these emerging threats.

Additionally, there are notable capability gaps among GCC navies, particularly in mine countermeasure vessels, which are crucial given the historical use of sea mines in the region, especially by Iran. The UAE is making strides in uncrewed maritime craft, but overall investment in comprehensive maritime surveillance and mine countermeasures remains limited. The issue of underway replenishment capabilities also looms, with most GCC navies lacking modern support vessels necessary for sustained operations.

Looking ahead, sustaining and effectively operating these enhanced naval capabilities will pose a significant challenge for the GCC states. Qatar, for example, is expanding its compulsory national service program and has initiated maritime training efforts to address potential crew shortages. However, the reliance on expatriate personnel may undermine the long-term sustainability of its naval ambitions.

Saudi Arabia's ambition to develop a robust shipbuilding industry through the establishment of the new Sofon authority is promising, yet the viability of sustaining such a sector amid international competition remains uncertain. The UAE’s existing shipbuilding capabilities are more advanced, but the challenge of maintaining a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving maritime landscape persists.

In summary, while the GCC states are making significant strides in modernizing their naval forces in response to rising maritime insecurity, the complexities of regional threats and operational challenges necessitate ongoing evaluation and adjustment of their strategic priorities. The evolving dynamics in the Red Sea and the Gulf will undoubtedly continue to shape the future of naval operations in this critical area.

Source: IISS