Maritime Intelligence Brief – 11 August 2025

Key developments in maritime security, cyber threats, and global shipping risks

As geopolitical tensions, organised crime, and cyberattacks continue to shape the global maritime environment, Dryad Global’s latest Maritime Intelligence Brief provides critical insights for shipping companies, port operators, insurers, and maritime security professionals.

This week’s brief covers two major developments – a high-risk confrontation in the South China Sea and the first confirmed narco-submarine find in the South Pacific – alongside a snapshot of evolving piracy, cyber, and regulatory threats worldwide.

1. Collision in the South China Sea Heightens Commercial Shipping Risks

On 11 August 2025, a serious maritime incident occurred near Scarborough Shoal, involving a Chinese Navy vessel, a China Coast Guard ship (CCG 3104), and the Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP SULUAN.

The incident began during an escort mission for Filipino fishermen receiving aid. According to the Philippine Coast Guard, CCG 3104 engaged in aggressive manoeuvres, deployed water cannons, and collided with another Chinese vessel during the high-speed pursuit. The collision left CCG 3104’s forecastle heavily damaged and unseaworthy.

Why it matters for commercial shipping:

• Increased likelihood of delays or damage in contested waters

• Potential fuel cost rises of 3–7% from rerouting

• War risk insurance premiums climbing by 12–15% annually

• Possible port congestion at Singapore, impacting 45% of global crude oil and 26% of automotive trade flows

While large-scale conflict remains unlikely, continued “grey zone” tactics will drive up operational costs and disrupt supply chains for commercial operators.

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2. First Narco-Submarine Found in the South Pacific

On 9 August 2025, a local fisherman discovered a 40-foot semi-submersible vessel off Isabel Province, Solomon Islands.

Australian authorities identified it as a narco-submarine, likely linked to Latin American drug cartels such as the Sinaloa or Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

The vessel – with a fiberglass hull, multiple engines, and a sealed hatch – mirrors designs used to smuggle multi-tonne cocaine shipments, like the 7.7 tonnes intercepted by the U.S. Coast Guard in 2019.

Why it matters for maritime security:

• Cartels are exploiting the Pacific’s vast EEZs and limited maritime surveillance

• Fiji and surrounding nations risk becoming major drug transit hubs to high-value markets like Australia

• Merchant crews face violent retaliation risks if smugglers suspect interference

• Increased likelihood of voyage delays due to vessel inspections (1–3 days)

• Potential rise in piracy, extortion, and other organised crime targeting shipping in the region

3. Other Notable Intelligence This Week

• Houthis sanction 64 shipowners trading with Israel, heightening Red Sea shipping risk

• Ireland tracks shadow tanker avoiding the English Channel

• Panama enforces new rules on ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to curb sanctions evasion

• CyberArk & HashiCorp vulnerabilities expose risk of remote vault takeover without credentials

• China deploys five icebreakers near Alaska, signalling growing Arctic ambitions

• Seafarer happiness rises overall, but serious safety concerns remain

What This Means for the Maritime Industry

This week’s developments highlight the multi-dimensional nature of maritime risk:

• Geopolitical flashpoints like the South China Sea create physical navigation hazards and increase operational costs.

• Organised crime is evolving, with narco-submarines now appearing in previously untouched waters.

• Cyber vulnerabilities and targeted sanctions continue to reshape the regulatory and threat environment.

For shipping companies, operators, and insurers, proactive maritime domain awareness and data-led risk intelligence are essential to protecting assets, people, and supply chains.

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