Metis Insights: Yemen's Failed Truce

Yemen’s warring sides have failed to reach an agreement to extend a nationwide ceasefire. What does this mean for the maritime domain?

In our latest Metis Insights, Dryad Global analyst Arran Kennedy explores the impact of Yemen's failed truce on the maritime domain. 

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Overview

On 02 October 22, the deadline for extending the UN-brokered truce agreement between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen was missed. Since first coming into effect in April 22, the truce was renewed twice, most recently in August 22 for a further two months. During its implementation, Yemen has witnessed the longest period of relative calm since the country’s civil war began in 2014. During which there has been a significant decline in casualties, increased fuel imports into the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hudaydah, and the resumption of some commercial flights to and from Sana’a airport. As it did in August, the UN is reported to have pushed for a six-month extension of the agreement, as well as an expansion of its terms. Unlike last time however, both sides failed to agree on a two-month extension without any additional terms. Reporting suggests that the coalition was open to a repeat of last round’s terms, however the Houthi’s are believed to have sought additional concessions.

In his statement following the official expiration of the truce, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg’s called for ‘calm and refrain from provocations or any actions that could lead to an escalation of violence’. Though a large-scale military escalation does not appear to have occurred – and the key elements of the truce are still holding, for now – Grundberg’s call for no escalation in violence has not been heeded entirely, with early reporting indicating a significant resumption of fighting in key areas. Fighting in numerous Governorates in Yemen resumed almost immediately after, including an apparent Houthi attempt to infiltrate (under heavy artillery cover) numerous Yemeni Army positions around the city of Taiz – a city which has long been a flashpoint in the truce negotiations.

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