Military Challenges to China's South China Sea Claims are Increasing

The South China Sea remains a focal point of international maritime contention, where rising deployments of naval and aerial forces are challenging China's extensive and legally unsupported claims.

These disputes center on Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty over features within its "nine-dash line," encompassing the Paracel and Spratly Islands, despite the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejecting its claims.

Escalating Countermeasures to China's Claims

International law has struggled to curb China’s assertive behavior, prompting nations to employ military activities to counterbalance Beijing’s ambitions. The U.S., maintaining the most proactive presence, conducted 107 operations in 2023, including Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) that explicitly challenge China’s territorial assertions. These missions are accompanied by robust public diplomacy to emphasize adherence to international maritime norms.

European states, including the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, have significantly increased naval deployments in the region. Notably, British naval operations frequently transit near the Spratly and Paracel Islands, signaling commitment to freedom of navigation. France and Canada also maintain high-profile presences, with the latter deploying journalists aboard its vessels to underscore its actions. However, engaging near sensitive areas like the Paracels remains perilous, as evidenced by China’s aggressive maneuvers, including intercepts and provocations involving flares and chaff.

Asia-Pacific countries have also intensified activities. Australia, Japan, and New Zealand operate closer to disputed zones, with some nations joining the Philippines in joint patrols. These actions aim to bolster regional security and deter further Chinese encroachments, although many of these activities are conducted discreetly. For example, Australia’s operations are understated, reflecting a cautious yet steady approach to strategic challenges.

Regional and Global Implications

European engagement in the South China Sea underscores a widening recognition of the region’s strategic significance. By reinforcing maritime norms, these actions align with broader efforts to uphold the rules-based order. European deployments also complement regional initiatives led by the Quad (comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India), amplifying collective resolve to address China’s maritime assertiveness.

Japan's expanding military footprint, coupled with enhanced interoperability with partners such as the U.S. and the Philippines, further signifies the region’s shift toward collective deterrence. However, South Korea remains a notable absentee, avoiding actions that could antagonize China. Similarly, Southeast Asian littoral states, while active in the region, refrain from explicit freedom of navigation operations.

Challenges and Risks

Operating within contested waters entails significant risks. Aggressive intercepts by China’s military illustrate Beijing’s readiness to counter perceived threats to its claims. Such provocations highlight the need for robust multilateral coordination and risk management among involved nations.

Moreover, the strategic deployments by European and Asia-Pacific nations reflect a broader geopolitical recalibration. Their collective pushback against China’s claims is not just a regional effort but a global reaffirmation of maritime norms essential for economic and security stability.

Conclusion

The growing naval presence in the South China Sea signals an international commitment to contest unlawful maritime claims and preserve freedom of navigation. While challenges persist, increased cooperation among global and regional actors strengthens the resilience of the rules-based order, ensuring the South China Sea remains a vital conduit for trade and security.