Intelligence Brief: China Controls the South China Sea

The South China Sea, now essentially controlled by China, sees several million barrels per day of oil and other goods transit through its waters. Despite increased military ties between the U.S., Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, China's dominance persists. Since 2013, China has been constructing artificial islands in the region, bolstering its claim of sovereignty over the entire sea and impeding other states' access to oil and gas reserves within their exclusive economic zones. China's growing maritime capabilities, including its People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), Chinese Coast Guard, and Maritime Militia force, enable it to monitor and control activities in the South China Sea.

By using tactics like high-pressure water cannons and shouldering incidents, China intimidates neighboring states and prevents them from accessing their resources. This pressure has strengthened political and military cooperation between the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines, but direct challenges to China remain unlikely. Despite legal rulings favoring the Philippines, China persists in its assertive actions, making it almost certain that only China will exploit the South China Sea's resources and control maritime traffic in the foreseeable future.