A Contested Global Order at Sea

Recent events have starkly exposed the vulnerabilities in the global maritime order.

Incidents such as the damage to the North Stream 2 pipeline, the severing of undersea cables, disruptions of grain exports, and attacks on shipping underline the contested nature of the oceans in contemporary international affairs. These events underscore a crucial reality: the once-taken-for-granted freedom of the seas, essential for global connectivity and prosperity, is now increasingly challenged by both state and non-state actors.

Since the end of the Cold War, open economies have relied heavily on uninterrupted maritime routes for goods, data, and resources. This dependency has made maritime spaces attractive targets for exerting geopolitical pressure. This dossier aims to reassess the geopolitical roles of the sea, exploring how legal, political, and technological strategies are evolving to address new maritime challenges, particularly those impacting Europe’s prosperity.

The Maritime Century

Modern society’s reliance on the sea is unparalleled. Approximately 90% of global trade and 97% of communications depend on maritime routes and undersea cables. Pipelines critical to national energy supplies also traverse the ocean floor. Moreover, the oceans are vital for food security, as millions work in the fishing industry, and coastal areas are home to half the world’s population. Oceans are also central to environmental sustainability, providing oxygen, supporting the water cycle, and offering potential for clean energy.

Maritime governance, crucial for sustainable living standards, remains a platform for power projection. China's maritime ambitions, linked to its Belt and Road Initiative, exemplify how nations use naval power to assert international influence, raising the risk of conflicts over navigation rights and sea control.

A Vulnerable Global Order

Historically, the global maritime order was defined by military power, exemplified by the naval arms races of the early 20th century. The post-World War II era reinforced this hierarchy, with powerful navies dominating international relations. However, the 1958 Convention on the High Seas and the 1982 UNCLOS marked a shift towards recognizing oceans as international spaces, introducing norms for cooperation and addressing challenges like piracy and illegal fishing.

Despite these norms, the global maritime order remains vulnerable. Power still matters, but so do legal frameworks and cooperative actions. Disputes over maritime boundaries and sovereign claims further complicate this order, blending military might with legal and diplomatic contestations.

European Security in Contested Seas

For Europe, the implications of maritime contestation are significant, particularly with the war in Ukraine, Red Sea disruptions, and persistent piracy off Africa. This dossier, featuring essays from experts across institutions like King’s College London and the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre, explores these challenges.

The first essays focus on legal frameworks and new security frontiers, addressing vulnerabilities in maritime laws and seabed exploitation while proposing resilience strategies. Subsequent essays examine NATO’s and European nuclear powers’ maritime deterrence and defence adaptations, highlighting the sea’s renewed importance for European security.

Operational experiences in the Black and Red Seas illustrate the impact of disruptive technologies on sea control and freedom of navigation. These cases underscore the necessity of deeper cooperation among allies to address these challenges effectively.

The final essay discusses Italy's maritime strategy, reflecting its shifting focus from the Mediterranean to the Indo-Pacific. Italy's initiatives, including the deployment of its carrier strike group and leadership in international naval operations, signify its commitment to maintaining maritime order in a contested global environment.

In conclusion, this dossier offers a comprehensive analysis of the evolving maritime order, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies to ensure international prosperity and stability. Readers are encouraged to engage with these insights to navigate the future of global maritime governance.