Cross-Strait relations in the Lai era
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In recent events, Yemen's Houthi rebels hijacked a cargo ship indirectly linked to Israel, signaling their alliance with Hezbollah and Hamas in opposing Israel's actions in Gaza. The hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, although not Israeli-owned, carries the potential for escalating the regional conflict.
While the Israeli government denied any connection to the vessel, the Houthis claimed the detained crew would be treated according to Islamic values. The possibility of a broader regional war depends more on developments at the Lebanese-Israeli border and Iran's reactions, rather than symbolic Houthi attacks.
The Houthis, who belong to the Zaydi Shia sect, were once rulers of Yemen and have since formed the Ansar Allah movement, opposing the central government. While they adopted anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments, they did not take action against Americans during their rebellion against Sanaa from 2004 to 2010. However, in 2021, they breached the US embassy compound.
The Houthis are often seen as proxies of Iran, with evidence of their relationship dating back to 2009. As the Saudi-led war intensified in Yemen, the Houthis collaborated with Hezbollah and developed their own weapons industry. They also smuggled Iranian arms to Hamas in Gaza. The longer the conflict lasts, the more likely the Houthis will coordinate with Hezbollah.
During their rebellion against Sanaa, the Houthis rarely mentioned Israel or Hamas. However, after taking over Sanaa in 2014 and with the start of the war in Yemen, their statements on Israel and the United States became harsher. Their relations with Hamas also grew friendlier as they became closer to Hezbollah. In the current Israeli war on Gaza, the Houthis have expressed full support for the Palestinians, but their actions have been largely limited to posing a threat to Israeli vessels and promising further action if the attack on Gaza continues.
If the truce fails and military strikes escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, the Houthis are likely to become fully involved, particularly in the maritime dimension in the Red Sea. Iran's direct entry into the war would be a game changer, with potentially grave risks to US interests if they block the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Arab Centre Washington DC
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