Operation Aspides, or the Peril of Low Expectations in Yemen

Yemen's maritime borders have emerged as a flashpoint in the ongoing Gaza conflict, where the Houthis (Ansar Allah) have strategically disrupted traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. 

This vital chokepoint, which connects the Red Sea to the Suez Canal, has become a lever in regional and global power dynamics. Despite international efforts, including the EU's Operation Aspides and the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), the Houthis’ tactics have effectively disrupted trade, exposing strategic vulnerabilities and raising critical questions about the efficacy of current responses.

Operation Aspides: A Reactive Initiative

Launched in February 2024 under UN Security Council Resolution 2722, Operation Aspides aims to protect commercial vessels, ensure safe passage, and enhance maritime awareness in the Bab al-Mandab. However, its achievements remain limited. While it has escorted over 250 ships and repelled multiple Houthi attacks, this is a fraction of the annual traffic through the strait. With maritime activity down 55% from 2023, shipping companies have increasingly rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the strait altogether. This shift has disrupted global supply chains valued at $1 trillion annually.

The restrained approach of Operation Aspides, marked by a defensive posture and a one-year mandate, contrasts sharply with the U.S. operation, which includes offensive strikes on Houthi assets. While the EU mission avoids escalation, it has not altered the Houthis’ disruptive behavior. Instead, its limited focus has perpetuated a reactive strategy that addresses symptoms rather than the underlying causes of insecurity.

Policy Disconnect and Strategic Gaps

The EU’s strategy in Yemen suffers from a lack of coherence and long-term vision. Like earlier de-escalation efforts, Operation Aspides fails to address the structural factors enabling Ansar Allah’s dominance. Critical oversights include the 2018 Stockholm Agreement, which inadvertently consolidated Houthi control over Hodeida’s ports, facilitating access to illicit arms and resources. These capabilities underpin the Houthis’ ability to blockade Bab al-Mandab and disrupt maritime trade.

The EU’s emphasis on dialogue and limited support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government has yielded minimal results. While aspiring to remain neutral, the EU has inadvertently emboldened the Houthis, whose attacks on maritime traffic predate the Gaza conflict and are unlikely to cease under current conditions. Their actions align with Iran’s broader regional strategy, leveraging maritime disruption as a bargaining tool.

Toward a Comprehensive EU Response

To secure Bab al-Mandab and address the crisis’ roots, the EU must adopt a more robust and strategic approach:

1. Strengthen Yemeni Partners: The EU should enhance its partnership with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, focusing on capacity-building for coast guard and naval forces. Support should extend to Red Sea littoral states, fostering regional security cooperation through training, equipment, and intelligence sharing.

2. Reassess Peace Frameworks: The EU must advocate for peace processes that prioritize security and arms control, particularly addressing the Houthis’ military capabilities and smuggling networks. Broader regional partnerships, including with Gulf states, will be essential for creating a durable peace.

3. Expand Maritime Security Mandates: A longer-term extension of Operation Aspides, coupled with closer coordination with Operation Prosperity Guardian, can enhance intelligence sharing, early warning systems, and interdiction efforts. This should include deploying advanced surveillance technologies and streamlining operational protocols.

Conclusion

The Bab al-Mandab crisis underscores the consequences of years of reactive policies and mismanagement of Yemen’s conflict. Operation Aspides, while mitigating immediate risks, exemplifies the limitations of a short-term and restrained approach. To ensure the security of Red Sea trade, the EU must recalibrate its Yemen strategy, aligning with regional priorities and adopting proactive measures to address Ansar Allah’s disruptive capabilities. Failure to do so risks leaving maritime trade hostage to broader geopolitical calculations, perpetuating instability in a vital global chokepoint.