Quiet before the storm: Is a new maritime security order taking shape in the Black Sea region?

The Black Sea has emerged as a focal point of shifting power dynamics amidst Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. 

Historically critical for regional and global security, the Black Sea's strategic significance has been underscored by recent escalations, including the September 11 attack on the merchant vessel Aya by a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber. Though initially perceived as a potential threat to Ukraine’s grain-export corridor, subsequent intelligence suggests the attack stemmed from a targeting error, not a deliberate strategy. This relative quiet underscores Russia's hesitance to escalate conflicts in the Black Sea despite its strategic setbacks.

Evolving Maritime Security Frameworks

In response to threats like sea mines, NATO members Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey established the Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group (MCM Black Sea) on July 1, 2023. While the initiative enhances maritime safety, it reflects a compromise between varying national priorities. Bulgaria and Romania advocate for a stronger NATO role, whereas Turkey prefers limited non-littoral involvement. Consequently, MCM Black Sea operates outside NATO’s institutional framework, signifying a continuation of Turkey's “regional ownership” strategy while balancing NATO’s broader objectives.

Russian Influence and Regional Rivalries

The Black Sea's geopolitical balance has been influenced by Russian expansionism, particularly following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This enabled Russia to develop an anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capability, reshaping the region's naval power dynamics. However, Turkey’s closure of the Bosporus and Dardanelles in March 2022, in line with the Montreux Convention, severely restricted Russia’s ability to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet, neutralizing its initial dominance.

Ukraine’s targeted strikes have further degraded Russian naval capabilities, including the loss of the Moskva, the fleet's flagship. As a result, the western Black Sea has become a contested theater, with Ukraine regaining limited access to its coastline—a critical factor for its sovereignty and economic resilience. Russia’s retreat to safer positions reflects its shift from maritime dominance to attritional survival, further undermining its strategic foothold.

NATO, EU, and Turkish Dynamics

NATO’s maritime strategy has adapted to the shifting landscape. With Russia’s effectiveness reduced, NATO’s direct involvement is minimal, though US and UK aerial surveillance reinforce security. This leaves Turkey as the primary maritime security provider, asserting its influence despite frictions with other NATO members.

The EU’s potential entry into Black Sea security may challenge Turkey’s dominance. Romania and Bulgaria appear inclined to involve the EU as a counterweight to Turkey’s influence, risking fragmentation in regional coordination. Persistent exclusionary practices by the EU could exacerbate tensions, driving Turkey closer to Russia and away from Western alignment.

Strategic Implications for NATO and Turkey

The conflict has revitalized NATO’s purpose, reaffirming its roles of containing Russian aggression and maintaining US-European unity. However, Turkey’s estrangement from Western politics poses a challenge to NATO cohesion. Whether the war fosters Turkey’s reintegration into European security frameworks or accelerates its drift from the West remains a pivotal question. The outcome will shape the future of Black Sea security and broader European stability.