The Houthis Escalate and Expand the War

In early June, the Houthis arrested several United Nations and international NGO employees, accusing them of being part of an “American-Israeli spy cell.” 

This action coincided with the Houthis’ first successful drone boat attack on the Greek-owned bulk carrier Tutor off Yemen’s coast. After a temporary lull during Ramadan, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have increased. U.S. intelligence suggests renewed Houthi outreach to al-Shabaab in Somalia for weapon transfers, and the group aims to extend its threat to ships as far away as the Mediterranean. These developments indicate the Houthis' strategy to escalate and expand their conflict with the United States.

Historical Parallels and Strategy

The Houthis' current approach mirrors their tactics during the six wars against the Yemeni government from 2004 to 2010. Following setbacks, the Houthis would regroup and escalate their attacks, gradually expanding the conflict. This strategy enabled them to extend their control from Saada to much of northern Yemen. Now, while their adversary has shifted from the Yemeni government to the United States, the Houthis continue to escalate and expand their operations.

Escalation Tactics

1. Increased Attacks: The Houthis plan to ramp up the number of attacks, leveraging volume to increase the likelihood of successful strikes.
2. New Weapons: Utilizing innovative weapons like drone boats, potentially supplied or tested by Iran, the Houthis are diversifying their attack methods.
3. Broadened Target Area: Expanding their attacks beyond the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean, the Houthis aim to maximize their impact.
4. Alliances with Other Groups: By partnering with groups like al-Shabaab, the Houthis seek to enhance their regional threat.
5. Exploiting Vulnerabilities: Arresting U.N. and NGO workers, the Houthis create leverage against the United States by involving international bodies and aid agencies in the conflict.

Challenges for the United States

The U.S. strategy has been largely reactive. Initially, the U.S. adopted a defensive stance, shooting down Houthi missiles and drones targeting commercial ships. When this proved insufficient, limited strikes on Houthi launch sites in Yemen were implemented. Despite these efforts, the Houthis have continued to escalate their attacks, maintaining the initiative.

Strategic Dilemmas

The U.S. now faces two main options, both fraught with difficulties:

1. Continuation of Current Strategy: Persisting with the current defensive approach and periodic strikes may not deter or degrade the Houthis effectively.
2. Escalation: Matching the Houthis' escalation could play into their strategy, potentially leading to a broader, more protracted conflict that benefits the Houthis domestically and regionally.

Conclusion

The situation presents no easy solutions for the United States. The current approach has not achieved the desired deterrence, and escalation risks deeper entanglement in a protracted conflict. The Houthis’ strategy of escalation and expansion, reminiscent of their past conflicts, underscores the complexity of achieving a sustainable resolution. The U.S. must weigh its options carefully, considering both immediate tactical responses and long-term strategic impacts.

Source: AGSIW