The Russian strategy in the Mediterranean

Russia has historically focused its naval strategy on continental waters, primarily the northern seas, rather than the Mediterranean. 

Its limited presence in the Mediterranean has been maintained through the Fifth Eskadra, established in 1958 to counter U.S. influence in Lebanon and to enable rapid intervention in the Black Sea, as constrained by the Montreux Convention of 1936, which gives Turkey control over the Black Sea's gateway straits.

Historical Context and Naval Doctrine

Historically, Russian elites have viewed the Mediterranean and Black Seas as interconnected, compelling the Soviet Union to project its influence into the Mediterranean as the dominant Black Sea power. Notably, Admiral Ivan Kasatonov and Admiral Ivan Kapitanets underscored the necessity of a Mediterranean presence to defend Soviet interests, aligning with Admiral Sergey Gorshkov’s strategies of strategic mobility and forward deployment.

During the Cold War, the USSR forged agreements with Mediterranean-bordering nations to bolster its naval presence. In 1958, Albania allowed Soviet submarines to use the port of Vlore, extending Soviet reach into the Adriatic. However, this arrangement dissolved by 1961, reducing Soviet naval days in the Mediterranean significantly. The Soviet naval presence revived post-1967 after supporting Arab nations against Israel, gaining access to Egyptian and Syrian ports, although access to Egyptian ports ceased in 1976 under President Anwar Sadat. The Soviet foothold in Tartus, Syria, persists, albeit with limitations due to the port’s inadequacies for large ships and extended naval operations.

Shift to North Africa

With deteriorating relations with Egypt, Russia turned its focus to Libya, signing substantial contracts for arms and infrastructure projects from 2008. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi offered Russia the port of Benghazi, but the 2011 overthrow of Qaddafi’s regime interrupted this arrangement. Nonetheless, Russia maintains strong ties with Eastern Libyan leadership, evidenced by increased military and mercenary presence in Libya, aimed at establishing a strategic foothold on the Mediterranean.

Current Strategic Objectives

Russia's strategy in Libya involves circumventing sanctions related to the Ukraine invasion by leveraging Libya for oil sales, generating substantial revenue. This strategy extends beyond Libya, with Russian interests spreading across the African continent, notably in Niger and Sudan, where strategic military bases and ports could enhance Russia’s naval and air capabilities.

Implications and Future Scenarios

The West has observed these developments with concern. While NATO’s superior capabilities could neutralize any Russian threat in the Mediterranean, Russia’s primary aim appears to support its allies in North Africa. The most likely scenario sees Russia consolidating its Mediterranean presence, exploiting Western inaction and shifting American focus towards China. This scenario includes Russia leveraging African ports and bases, enhancing its strategic position in both the Mediterranean and Red Sea, with potential impacts on regional stability and global geopolitical dynamics.