Access the latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory for the week commencing 22nd May 2023.
👉 Within the last reporting period, Libya's eastern-based parliament voted to replace Fathi Bashagha as Prime Minister amid signs of shifting alliances in Libyan politics. Transitions of power are potentially volatile, and West Libya could exploit a government reshuffle to gain an advantage, increasing the conflict risk between East and West. The removal of Bashagha indicates Haftar's influence, potentially leading to instability as Hamad, with ties to Haftar, may forcefully pursue reunification. Alternatively, if Bashagha hindered Haftar's power-sharing deals, it poses long-term security risks due to Haftar's militarism and power ambitions.
👉 Within the Black Sea, Russia has agreed to extend the Black Sea Grain deal for a further 60 days following a further series of threats to not endorse an extension. Russia's UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, stated that the deal was extended because "we still do not lose hope that the problems that we are raising will be sorted out." Beyond the grain deal, Turkish diplomats made progress towards an agreement to release all Turkish cargo vessels from Ukraine, some five dozen foreign vessels have been trapped in Ukrainian ports. It is hoped that the release of the Turkish vessels will pave the way for the departure of other vessels.