Is Quds Force Chief Qaani Likely to Open a Hezbollah Front Against Israel?

The recent exchange of fire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah has raised concerns about the possibility of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza spreading to Lebanon and potentially escalating into a wider regional war. 

However, it is believed that for the time being, the risk of a regional war is low due to Iran's principal patronage of Hezbollah and its lack of interest in opening a northern front against Israel.

Iran has three main reasons for not involving Hezbollah in a wider war with Israel. Firstly, Iran has already achieved its objectives in the Israel-Hamas conflict, which includes postponing a possible agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and inflicting a surprise attack on Israeli territory. Secondly, Iran's decision not to involve Hezbollah from the beginning indicates that it has specific reasons for not entangling Israel in a two-front war with Hamas and Hezbollah. 

Thirdly, Hezbollah primarily serves as a deterrent against a potential Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, as evidenced by the Iranian leadership's strategic analysis of the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war.

Hezbollah's involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict is possible, but both Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Israel and the United States, do not appear interested in a wider regional war. This cautious approach is guided by strategic considerations and a desire to avoid a broader conflict in the region. 

Source: AGSIW