Metis Insights: Black Sea Grain Initiative Analysis

On 22nd July 2022, Ukraine and Russia signed agreements with Turkiye to facilitate the export of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilisers from Ukraine.

The Ukraine-Russia War has contributed to skyrocketing global food prices that are assessed to have pushed 47 million people into acute hunger. Developing and emerging economies in Africa, Asia, and Latin America have been the most severely impacted, due to their reliance on fuel and grain imports. Food price hikes have contributed to political unrest and violence. The Black Sea Grain Initiative promises to increase the global supply of grain and bring down food prices.

The deal was brought into question on 23^rd July when Russia launched four Kalibr missiles at the port of Odesa, one of the three ports listed under the deal. None of the missiles struck the grain port, but the attack appeared to demonstrate a Russian disregard for the parameters of the agreement. Nonetheless, on 24^th July Kyiv and Moscow signalled they were willing to continue with the initiative. The first shipments may depart from Chernomorsk on Wednesday 27^th July.

In our latest Metis Insights, Dryad Global analyst Cameron Watson explores the potential outcomes of the newly signed Black Sea Grain Initiative.

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