An Indian Ocean Strategy Is Key to Prevailing Over China

The United States must develop robust strategies in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans to effectively compete with China, particularly in terms of economic and military influence. 

The Indian Ocean, serving as a vital link between the Pacific and Mediterranean-Atlantic regions, is home to rapidly growing populations and energy-rich nations, making it a key arena for global competition. Notably, it is a major trade route, with over 60% of the world’s maritime trade passing through it, including essential oil shipments crucial to China’s economy.

A prolonged conflict between the U.S. and China would expose China’s vulnerabilities in the Indian Ocean, which serves as a critical lifeline for its energy imports and trade. The U.S., however, lacks natural dominance in this region, unlike in the Pacific and Atlantic, and must pursue a strategy of building coalitions, sharing responsibilities, and enhancing partner capabilities.

To succeed, the U.S. needs a two-pronged approach: first, to establish a presence across key maritime regions like the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz, and second, to build the capabilities of allies like India and Australia. India's geographical position and military potential make it a central player, and strengthening India’s naval and operational capabilities would be crucial. Additionally, the U.S. should explore partnerships with France and the U.K., which control key territories in the Indian Ocean, and leverage its alliance with Australia to maintain security in the region.

Strategic partnerships with regional nations, such as Kenya and Mozambique, as well as Gulf powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, can further solidify U.S. influence. These countries are investing heavily in maritime infrastructure, presenting opportunities for collaboration. Indonesia, with its extensive coastline, is another important partner in enhancing maritime security and economic cooperation.

The U.S. must also enhance Coast Guard collaboration with Indian Ocean littoral states to address issues such as illegal fishing, piracy, and maritime security. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has led to significant Chinese investments in Indian Ocean ports, which the U.S. must counter by leading development and infrastructure efforts through groups like the Indo-Pacific QUAD and the I2U2.

A unified U.S. Indian Ocean strategy is critical, requiring better inter-command coordination and diplomatic efforts. This strategy should be led by INDOPACOM in cooperation with India, with strong backing from the National Security Council and Congress. By formulating and executing a coherent Indian Ocean strategy, the U.S. can enhance its national security, strengthen alliances, and maintain a competitive edge against China in this crucial region.