Access the latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory for the week commencing 17th October 2022.

👉 Russia has threatened to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal if concerns over its own agricultural exports are not addressed. It is unlikely that Russia will withdraw from or compromise the security of ports or vessels protected by the initiative prior to 19 November when the grain deal expires. 

👉 In Libya, decreased oil output and subsequent port closures are likely in the next week. The Fezzan Movement has threatened to close the Sharara and El Feel oil fields on an undisclosed date next week claim- ing to have military support. The Fezzan movement has the capability and has enacted similar blockades in the past. It is probable that there will be subsequent force majeures on oil exports at Zawiya and Mellitah. The Libyan Chief of House Energy Committee has also threatened to shut down the country’s oil ports in protest against foreign interference in the country, particularly that of Turkey. He has stated that outraged citizens are likely to enforce a blockade, however, has not provided any dates or ultimatums for such action. 

👉 Lebanon and Israel have reached a historical agreement demarcating a disputed maritime border following US mediated negotiations. There is still a lengthy ratification process for Israel, and it is possible that the deal will not be retained post the 1 November election. Nonetheless, the deal is likely to temporarily stabilise the situation which has been characterised by steadily increasing tensions, particularly in the waters surrounding the Parish oil fields.

👉 The ICC IMB’s latest global piracy report states that there were 90 incidents of piracy and armed robbery against ships in the first nine months of 2022, the lowest recorded figure in 30 years. Incidents in the Gulf of Guinea experienced a significant decline. De- spite an overall decrease in incidents, incidents of opportunistic low-level theft at anchorages, particularly Luanda and Takoradi anchorage, continue. The Singapore Strait has experienced an increase in low-level opportunistic crimes.