China’s Maritime Grey Zone Tactics Are Evolving

These developments reveal a broader shift in China's maritime coercion. While plausible deniability previously characterized its actions in the South China Sea, Beijing is now employing overt military power. The sustained naval presence around the Senkaku Islands since 2012 and near-constant incursions into Japan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) mirror these escalatory tactics, indicating a systemic change in Chinese maritime strategy.

China’s assertiveness extends beyond the Indo-Pacific. Collaboration with Russia in joint naval and aerial operations has become routine, beginning with their 2019 nuclear-capable bomber maneuvers in the Sea of Japan. Land exercises near NATO borders, including the Chinese-Belorussian drills in July, signal Beijing's ambitions to shape global security dynamics. This aligns with high-level discussions between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, showcasing a unified response to perceived threats.

Economically, China is bracing for potential backlash. The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum, chaired by Xi Jinping, likely included deliberations on economic resilience to support its militaristic ambitions. Little public information exists, but the focus on long-term economic strategies aligns with preparations for anticipated sanctions or trade reprisals.

This strategic evolution suggests a new era of maritime expansionism, with increasing Chinese activity in the South and Central Pacific. The 2022 Solomon Islands security pact exemplifies these widening geographic ambitions. These actions could represent the vanguard of a larger, coordinated effort to project Chinese influence globally.

U.S. and Allied Responses: Lagging Behind?

The United States has struggled to adapt to China's evolving strategy. Previous successes, such as the 2020 West Capella incident, demonstrate the potential of coordinated naval presence and strategic diplomacy. In that case, the U.S. merged economic and security interests to deter Chinese aggression without direct conflict. Yet, current policies fail to replicate such successes, leaving the U.S. and its allies trailing as Beijing advances its strategy.

China’s maritime confidence, from the East China Sea to the Central Pacific, signals the urgency for a robust and adaptive U.S. response. Reinforcing naval statecraft and deepening alliances are essential to counter China’s widening reach. A strategic framework akin to the 2020 Indo-Pacific policy must be revitalized to ensure stability and deter aggression in an increasingly contested region.

With China's ambitions expanding, the window for a decisive response is narrowing. The stakes demand immediate action to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific.