Comparing Gray-Zone Tactics in the Red Sea and the South China Sea

Gray-zone tactics, which operate between peace and war, are increasingly used by actors to further their interests without engaging in open conflict. 

Such tactics threaten freedom of navigation, crucial for global economic stability. Recent examples include Houthi activities in the Red Sea and Chinese actions around Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, which reveal significant parallels despite different contexts.

The Houthis, a non-state actor from Yemen, have hijacked and targeted ships linked to Israel, the U.S., and the UK, aiming to influence the Gaza conflict. Their actions exploit the Bab al-Mandab strait, a critical maritime chokepoint, using missiles, drones, and misinformation to disrupt global trade and pressure regional powers. The Houthis' identity as non-state actors complicates international responses, as existing laws don't fully apply to their actions.

In the South China Sea, the China Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia have intensified efforts to blockade Second Thomas Shoal since February 2023, aiming to prevent Philippine resupply missions to a grounded naval vessel. China justifies these actions through domestic laws conflicting with international laws, while framing the Philippines as aggressors. The CCG's aggressive maneuvers and constant presence blur the lines between law enforcement and military action, complicating appropriate responses.

Both cases show the effectiveness of gray-zone tactics in advancing political objectives through ambiguity and narrative control. The Houthis and China utilize non-military actors to minimize escalation risks while pushing their agendas. They also engage in narrative posturing, spreading misinformation to legitimize their actions and undermine adversaries.

To counter such tactics, international responses must be coordinated and nuanced. The U.S. has initiated Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect Red Sea shipping, while the Philippines has increased maritime security cooperation with allies. These actions highlight the need for unified efforts, enhanced maritime security, updated legal frameworks, and addressing underlying political and socioeconomic grievances to maintain global stability and counter gray-zone threats effectively.